Champaign, Illinois 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

590
FXUS63 KILX 141131
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
531 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A rain system today could bring heavy rain south of I-70. The
  current forecast supports a low (50-70%) chance of exceeding 1
  inch of rain near and south of I-70. Further north, totals will
  be significantly lower.

- Unseasonably warm air (20-25 degrees above normal) arrives next
  week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday with mid-60s to lower 70s
  temperatures. Expect gusty southwest winds (20-30 mph) to
  accompany this warmup.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Happy Valentine`s Day! Today the pattern changes and rain is
expected. A low pressure system is expected to travel eastward
across the southern part of the U.S. this weekend. Thankfully,
temperatures will remain above freezing for the next week, so all
precipitation we receive will be in liquid/rain form. Rain should
start in the southern part of the CWA around 18z today and will
continue for the remainder of the day. Then exiting southeastern IL
by late morning tomorrow.

The models have continued to wobble around with where exactly this
low will travel, which will determine how much rain our CWA will
see. However, over the last day, the trends have shifted the rain
more northward. The best chances to see a healthy dose of rain is
focused along and south of the I-72 corridor. The NBM is showing a
20-50% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain from 18z Sat to 18z Sun
between I-72 and I-70, and a 50-70% chance of exceeding an inch
south of I-70. Currently, have QPF of 0.5-0.9 inch along and south
of I-72 and amounts decreasing rapidly as you move north of I-72.
The soil has begun to thaw thanks to the warm temperatures as of
recent, so flooding risks are low as of now. The WPC does have us in
a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday.

Above normal temperatures aren`t going anywhere anytime soon. Highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s are
forecast for the next week. The warmest day being next Wednesday
with the NBM having a 40-60% chance of temperatures exceeding 65
degrees that afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday, while being warm,
will also be quite windy, with forecast wind gusts of 20-30 mph.

A cool down to more seasonable temperatures looks possible as a low
pressure system looks to travel through the area mid to late week,
bringing more chances for some light rain and potentially some
thunderstorms with it.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A rain system will move through central IL today, primarily
impacting SPI/DEC/CMI. PIA/BMI should remain dry with the system
passing to the south. Clouds will increase as the system
approaches and will lower thoughout the 12z TAF period. MVFR
conditions will begin by 00z at SPI, with all other sites joining
by 07z. There is a chance for IFR ceilings tomorrow morning at
SPI/DEC/CMI as the rain is exiting but confidence isn`t high
enough to include at this time.

The rain is expected to start in SPI by 20z, DEC by 22z, and CMI
by 00z. The rain should conclude by 08z tomorrow morning as
PIA/BMI may start to see some fog (MVFR visibilities).

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$